Marin Cilic v Rafael Nadal R4 Odds and Picks

by Matt Porter
September 2nd 2019, 4:44pm

The last of our round four previews for Monday involves the new favorite for the tournament as he faces a tough last 16 match.

It’s two former Champions taking each other on as Rafael Nadal and Marin Cilic collide under the lights on Arthur Ashe, the match is expected to start at about 8.30pm eastern time and it should be a tremendous contest.


Marin Cilic has cruised through his matches so far, still hasn’t been taken to a deciding set and arrives into the second week of the tournament in good form.

This is clearly the toughest assignment that he has so far but he often produces his best at the US Open and some of his greatest nights have been on this very court he plays on tonight.

He played his finest tennis on Saturday for some time as he took apart John Isner in a 3-1 win, a scoreline few predicted going into it and it showed the Croatian still has big performances in him.

Marin CilicHis serve will be important and he’ll need to keep his opponent as far behind the baseline as possible for the rallies that will follow.

Following the departure of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal will have his eyes on winning the prize here but he does need to come through a pretty tough draw to reach the final.

It’s been plain sailing so far for the Spanish player and he hasn’t dropped a set in the tournament.

He defeated John Millman in the opening match before getting a walkover in the second round as Thanis Kokkanakis wasn’t fit enough to take to the court, Hyeon Chung was his victim over the weekend as the Spaniard cruised through in straight sets, never being troubled and breaking the serve of his opponent comfortably.

The Head to Head record is good for the Spanish player, he leads this 6-2 and does seem to match up well against the Croatian. Cilic does have some form against him though, the last time they met at a Grand Slam was in Australia last year and he won after the Spanish player had to retire in five sets.

This will be a match mainly played from the back of the court and it could come down to how well Cilic will serve, he’ll need a huge percentage of first serves in and if he can do that he might be in with a chance, Nadal will seek to totally dominate on the second serve of his opponent.

Our Pick

Rafael Nadal to win the match 3-1 pays +230 with Fanduel

We should fully expect the Spanish player to advance here but as the H2H between the players shows, this could be far tighter than the bookmakers have priced it up.

Cilic loves the courts here and often brings his best tennis, he should be able to grab a set but Nadal should have too much for him as we get into the later stages of the match. Rafael Nadal to win by a 3-1 scoreline looks a value call.