Who’s Going To Throw More Touchdowns—Carson Went or Nick Foles?

by Travis Pulver
August 19th 2019, 7:45am

The Philadelphia Eagles found themselves in a difficult but enviable position approaching the offseason last year. While most teams would love to have one viable starting quarterback, they had two—Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.

But they couldn’t keep both, of course. Nick Foles ended up finding a new home with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though he is now, technically ‘the enemy,’ Eagles fans will always have a place in their hearts for the guy who led their team to Super Bowl glory just a couple of years ago.

Nick Foles Jaguars QB

Those who really liked Foles (or just don’t like Wentz), will probably be quick to point out to their fellow Eagles fans every time Foles has a big game for the Jags this year. Some might even be willing to put a little money down on who has a more productive season. 

At PointsBet.com, they have the opportunity to do just that. They can bet on who they think is more likely to throw more touchdown passes this season:

  • Carson Wentz to Throw More Touchdowns than Nick Foles      -304
  • Nick Foles to Throw More Touchdowns than Carson Wentz      +225

Those odds translate into Wentz having a 75.25 percent chance to throw more TD passes this season than Nick Foles. As for Foles, he has a 30.77 percent chance. They aren’t great odds for Foles, but they are not necessarily terrible ones, either.

So—who’s it going to be? Wentz or Foles?

If you look at their respective track records, it is hard to say who is more likely to come out on top. Both have been good quarterbacks during their time in the NFL, but they have been more efficient than productive. 

In Wentz’s best year (2017), he threw 33 touchdowns but only played in 13 games. It was also the closest he has come to playing a majority of a season. Last year he only had 21 but played in just 11 games. Over the course of his three seasons in the NFL, he has played in 40 games (of 48) and thrown a total of 70 touchdown passes.

As for Foles, his most productive year came back in 2013 when he threw 28 touchdown passes in 13 games for the Eagles. During his career, which has seen him serve as a reserve more than a starter, he has played in 54 games and thrown 68 touchdown passes.

But comparing careers is not a good way to judge the question a hand. They didn’t work with the same receivers, offensive line, or coaching staff. Well—at least not for the entirety of their careers. What they have done to date, however, does tell us some valuable information.

Wentz Passing Yards

Wentz Passing Touchdowns

They are both efficient, reasonably accurate, and capable—which is great. But who is going to throw more touchdown passes this season?

While it will eventually come down to how well they both play, several aspects of their respective teams will factor in. Who has the better supporting cast?

According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles have the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL, so advantage Eagles in that respect (Jacksonville is ranked 21st). Neither team did a great job of running the ball last year.

Foles Passing Yards

Foles Passing Touchdowns

But the Eagles did more to address their run issues by acquiring Jordan Howard from the Bears and drafting Penn State running back Miles Sanders. Jacksonville looks like the will be banking on Leonard Fournette having a bounce-back year.

DeSean Jackson Eagles Receiver

As for their receivers, both guys are in pretty good shape. Wentz has one of the best receiving tight ends in the game in Zach Ertz and an aging but dangerous deep threat in DeSean Jackson as well as Alshon Jeffrey, Nelson Agholor, and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside.

Foles doesn’t have a tight end like Wentz, but his wide receivers may be better as a group (Dede Westbrook, Marqise Lee, Chris Conley, DJ Chark, and Keelan Cole).

Okay—so how should you bet?

Wentz looks like a natural choice here. He has more playmakers on his side, a better offensive line, and a more pass-oriented offense. However, you can’t trust him to play 16 games. With the odds set at -305 for him, it is hard to feel good about betting on him.

Foles, on the other hand, is a good enough passer that the Jaguars could become more pass-friendly this season. It was hard to tell with Blake Bortles at the helm, but the Jaguars have a great group of receivers.

Don’t bank on Wentz staying healthy. Take Foles at +225.