NFL Betting Tips: Who Will Throw For More?

Author
by Travis Pulver
September 2nd 2019, 7:21pm

Back in the day, the NFL and football, in general, was all about the running game. Running backs were valued much more than they are today, and quarterbacks were not.

Teams didn’t need a guy like Patrick Mahomes that could sling the ball over the field 40 times a game.

They needed a guy like Terry Bradshaw; someone capable of throwing well when they needed him to that could also manage the game.

But that was then, and in the here and now, the game is all about the pass. So, teams are looking for great passers—and there are some great ones in the league today. But if they were to go head-to-head, who would pass for more?

Draftkings.com is offering a set of matchups for fans to bet on that ask that very question—who will throw for more yards this season?

·        Patrick Mahomes            -129      or           Matt Ryan          +105

Only about 170 yards separated the two of them last year. Many think Mahomes will regress in his second year as the starter. But he has a great compliment of receivers and plays in an offense that lives by the pass.

Ryan is one of the best in the game. But the Falcons don’t rely on the pass as much as the Chiefs do. He also doesn’t have as many options as Mahomes does—so take Mahomes.

·        Baker Mayfield                 -110      or           Ben Roethlisberger -110

This is a tough one. Do you go with one of the most exciting young players in the game or one of the most reliable? On paper, the Browns have the kind of stacked roster that could easily explode. Big Ben doesn’t have Antonio Brown anymore, but JuJu Smith-Schuster looks read to be a No. 1 receiver.   

It would probably be better to skip this one. But if you want to go with someone—take Roethlisberger

·        Jameis Winston                -121      or           Aaron Rodgers +100

Winston has two things going for him—Bruce Arians has an excellent track record working with quarterbacks and the lack of a running game. But Rodgers is one of the best and can make just about anyone look like an All-Pro.

Take Rodgers.    

·        Drew Brees                        -110      or           Philip Rivers      -110

They have been two of the most prolific passers in the NFL for most of their career. But Brees didn’t seem like the same old guy in the second half of the season last year. Could age finally be catching up with him? If so, maybe it catches up with Rivers this year.

The Saints have become more run-oriented in recent years. Take Rivers.

·        Jared Goff                          -110      or           Tom Brady         -110

Last year, Goff threw for about 300 yards more than Brady. This year, there is a chance they have him throw more to help preserve Todd Gurley’s knees. But the Patriots did turn to the run more as the season went on last year. This year, he will not have Rob Gronkowski, but he will have Josh Gordon.

This one could go either way—take Brady.

·        Carson Wentz                   -115      or           Deshaun Watson             -106

Went has a better offensive line and a head coach that likes to make use of his skill set. Watson has a head coach that wants the defense and run game to control the outcome. Both have a great set of skill-position guys at their disposal but Went will make better use of his.

Take Wentz.

·        Kirk Cousins                       -134      or           Matthew Stafford           +110

Stafford is probably the better passer, but Cousins has better weapons and a better all-around team. Not playing from behind as often as Stafford likely will be may hurt his overall production. However, the Vikings run game is weak, which means they will have to lean on Cousins to get it done if they want to win.  

Take Cousins.

·        Sam Darnold                     -110      or           Russell Wilson                  -110

Darnold has shown some promise during his young career, but the Jets will likely be featuring the run game and Le’Veon Bell this season. The Seahawks became more of a run team last year, but Russell Wilson is one of the best in the game.

Go with Wilson.

·        Dak Prescott                     -139      or           Nick Foles                           +115

Dallas leans on the run and Prescott is a good passer on his best day with an okay group of receivers to work with. Jacksonville will likely try to lean on Fournette in the run game if he stays healthy. But they have a much better in Foles and a better overall group of receivers.

Take Foles.

·        Derek Carr                          -115      or           Jimmy Garoppolo           -106

While he wasn’t good last year, Carr still threw for over 4000 yards. Garoppolo has shown the potential to throw for 5000 and has a talented group of receivers at his disposal, more so than Carr has with the Raiders.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jon Gruden really try hard to establish the run with Josh Jacobs this year. Take Jimmy G.

·        Josh Allen                           -134      or           Lamar Jackson                  +110

This one is easy. Jackson and the Ravens can talk about the passing game all day long. But that doesn’t change the fact that Jackson is not a good passer. Allen completed a lower percentage of throws last year, but the Bills are going to try harder to establish the passing game than the Ravens will.

Take Allen.